UK net migration for 2024 revised down to 345,000 by ONS

Here’s the bit your class will ask first: the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revised last year’s UK net migration down to 345,000. That’s 20% lower than the provisional 431,000 published in May, while the earlier peak has been pushed up to 944,000 in the year to March 2023. These are measurement updates, not a sudden change in behaviour.

Net migration is simply those arriving to live in the UK for at least 12 months minus those leaving for 12 months or more. The latest revision reflects more British nationals emigrating than first recorded. When departures are higher than we thought, the net figure falls even if arrivals are similar.

How the counting works matters. Since 2020 the ONS has rebuilt its system, moving away from small airport surveys to administrative records. Non‑EU estimates now lean on Home Office Borders and Immigration data; EU figures use DWP/HMRC’s RAPID dataset; and new administrative sources are being introduced for British citizens. These are “official statistics in development”, so revisions like today’s are expected.

Why the higher peak? With fuller emigration data and updated Home Office figures, the ONS now estimates net migration reached about 944,000 in spring 2023, not 906,000 the following summer. That period saw unusually high legal migration for work and study, plus humanitarian routes for people from Ukraine and Hong Kong; the drop in 2024 followed tighter visa rules.

Policy timeline you can teach. In early 2024, the Conservative government curbed student dependants and raised salary thresholds. On 12 May 2025, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer set out further changes: ending overseas recruitment of care workers by 2028, tightening access to skilled worker visas and increasing employer charges-aiming for a significant multi‑year fall without setting a hard target.

At the same time, the asylum system is being recast. On Monday 17 November 2025, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood told MPs the system feels “out of control and unfair” and proposed Danish‑style reforms, including longer routes to settlement and tougher returns for families with refused claims. Expect a fierce argument about rights, fairness and evidence.

Small boats are only one piece of the migration picture, but they dominate headlines. By 14 November 2025, provisional Home Office data collated by the independent site MigrantData.uk put Channel arrivals this year at about 39,075-around 19% above the same point in 2024. Weekly updates can shift these totals.

Reading the numbers like an analyst helps your students. Always check the time window (for example, “year to December 2024” versus “year to March 2023”), whether a figure is net or separate immigration and emigration, and whether it’s provisional or a revision. The ONS is still improving its models, so further tidy‑ups are normal.

What politicians are saying. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch argues her party moved to cut numbers after the 2023 spike; Labour says high migration weakens incentives to train locally and is now tightening rules. The politics will sharpen ahead of the Autumn Budget on Wednesday 26 November.

Takeaway for classrooms. The revised ONS figures don’t change the bigger story: migration rose to exceptional highs after the pandemic and post‑Brexit visa changes, then fell quickly in 2024. The 2024 total is now smaller than first reported, but the main drivers since 2021 remain non‑EU work and study routes-and the policies that shape them.