Iran protests 2025–26: IRGC, sanctions, survival

You’ve probably heard the line about things collapsing “gradually, then suddenly”. Many Iranians hoped the latest protests marked that sudden turn. As of 13 January 2026, demonstrations continue under a near‑total internet blackout, with death tolls disputed and hard to verify. Rights groups and international reporters say hundreds-possibly more-have been killed, while arrests run into the thousands. In fast‑moving stories like this, numbers often shift as access improves. Reuters and the Associated Press both report well over 2,000 deaths cited by HRANA, with communication blackouts hampering confirmation. (reuters.com)

Start with the pressure on family budgets. In late September 2025, the UK, France and Germany triggered the UN “snapback”, restoring sanctions that had been lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal. That decision tightened controls on travel, finance and proliferation‑linked goods-and signalled a harder line. The immediate politics matter, but so do the groceries: by December, Iran’s rial had sunk to record lows against the dollar and food prices were up around 70 percent year‑on‑year, according to reporting by the Guardian and the Associated Press. What this means: wages buy less each week, and anger moves from private kitchens to public squares. (gov.uk)

Why hasn’t the state fallen? One reason is organised force. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) answers directly to the Supreme Leader and runs alongside Iran’s regular military. Estimates vary, but reputable sources put IRGC personnel in the low hundreds of thousands; the Basij militia-an IRGC auxiliary-claims millions of members, with independent studies suggesting hundreds of thousands can be mobilised. Reuters notes there are no clear signs of fractures at the top. When security chains hold, regimes buy time. (iranprimer.usip.org)

How protests are being met is equally important for your understanding. Amnesty International has verified cases of live fire and widespread use of metal pellets during crowd control in several provinces. At the same time, a nationwide shutdown has cut ordinary internet access since 8 January, though some Iranians report patchy satellite workarounds. What this means: evidence collection is slower, and video from the ground appears in bursts, not streams. (amnesty.org)

Power in Iran isn’t just uniforms and ranks; it’s contracts and cashflows. The IRGC has deep stakes in construction, energy and transport through entities such as Khatam al‑Anbiya. Reuters’ recent reporting describes bazaar merchants-long seen as regime‑leaning-turning against the clerical leadership as prices spike and as Guard‑linked interests expand. Sanctions that aim to choke revenue can also concentrate it in semi‑state networks. (reuters.com)

Leadership on the streets remains diffuse. That can protect a movement, but it also limits coordination. Exiled figures-most visibly Reza Pahlavi-have tried to shape momentum from abroad, yet opinions about him inside Iran are mixed and the movement remains broad rather than unified, as the Washington Post has noted. Reuters adds that opposition structures lack a single command. (washingtonpost.com)

Foreign pressure has ticked up. On 12–13 January 2026, President Donald Trump threatened a 25% tariff on any country “doing business with Iran”, a sweeping move announced online without immediate legal detail. China pushed back and partners sought clarity. What this means: if enforced, such tariffs would raise costs for US importers from those countries and could shift diplomatic calculations, but implementation and court scrutiny are big unknowns. (reuters.com)

The external shock story also includes force. In June 2025, Israel and Iran fought a brief war in which the US aided Israel and later struck Iranian nuclear sites, according to multiple outlets. These military blows matter politically; they also feed economic fear that shows up in exchange‑rate screens and shop prices. Families feel the war talk in the cost of rice and rent long before they ever see a soldier. (reuters.com)

So does an authoritarian state always end with a single dramatic moment? Sometimes. Think of Tunisia’s 2011 turning point when the army refused to keep shooting, or Egypt the same year when the military withdrew support from Hosni Mubarak. And more recently, Syria’s Bashar al‑Assad-long thought safe-was pushed out in late 2024 and fled to Moscow. These examples tell us that elite choices, especially by security leaders, can flip the script quickly. (amnesty.org)

For Iran today, three signals would suggest the “gradual” is tipping. First, visible splits inside the security services. Second, sustained strikes in oil, steel, and transport that unite workers and traders; Reuters has already documented frustration among merchants. Third, a credible national leadership frame that brings students, labour and minorities under one simple plan. None of these are guaranteed-or mutually exclusive. (reuters.com)

Meanwhile, the basics of media literacy help you read this story well. During blackouts, casualty numbers vary by source and lag the reality on the ground. Look for named organisations-Amnesty International, HRANA, NetBlocks, the UK Foreign Office, the EU Council, Reuters, AP-and check whether they explain methods, not just headlines. Ask yourself who benefits from each figure and what evidence is public. (amnesty.org)

Could Iran’s regime fall? Perhaps-but not yet. The security machine remains loyal, the economy is battered but still functioning, and external pressure cuts both ways. As learners and teachers, we should watch how money, force and morale interact over weeks, not hours. History reminds us that when a system finally gives way, it can look sudden; the groundwork, though, is always laid in plain sight. (reuters.com)