Category 5 Hurricane Melissa hits Jamaica, 28 Oct
If you’re following events today, Tuesday 28 October 2025, Jamaica is taking a direct hit from Hurricane Melissa. The US National Hurricane Center’s late-morning advisory put sustained winds near 185 mph (295 km/h) as the eye came ashore, while a companion forecast set minimum central pressure near 892 millibars - among the lowest ever recorded in the Atlantic. This is the island’s strongest landfall on record.
What this means right now: forecasters warn of 15–40 inches (38–100 cm) of rain across Jamaica, a storm surge of roughly 9–13 feet (about 3–4 metres) along parts of the south coast, and catastrophic wind damage. The advice from officials is simple and urgent - shelter away from windows, move to higher floors if floodwater rises, and stay off the roads.
A detail to watch is Melissa’s pace. The storm’s forward motion has repeatedly slowed to walking speed, which keeps intense rain bands parked over the same places for hours. Overnight and this morning, advisories showed translation speeds fluctuating between about 3 and 9 mph as steering winds weakened - a classic set-up for flooding and landslides.
How hurricanes work, in plain English: warm ocean water powers towering thunderstorms; as that air rises and cools, it releases heat that fuels a self-sustaining engine. Around a small calm “eye”, the eyewall forms - the ring of the fiercest winds and heaviest rain. The Saffir–Simpson category you see on TV measures wind only; it doesn’t count rainfall or storm surge, which is why a lower-category storm can still flood communities badly.
Where Melissa came from and why it intensified so fast: it began as a tropical wave off West Africa, reached tropical-storm strength on 21 October, then rapidly intensified over the weekend as it drifted across unusually warm Caribbean waters. Analyses show sea temperatures along Melissa’s path were roughly 1.4°C above average, increasing the energy available to the storm. That background warmth raises the odds of bursts of rapid strengthening.
Why “stalling” is so dangerous: when a hurricane slows down, rainfall totals leap. A landmark Nature study found average tropical-cyclone forward speeds have slowed about 10% since 1949, which can double the local rain increase expected from warming alone. A real-world example is Hurricane Harvey (2017), which lingered over Texas and produced more than 60 inches (over 1.5 metres) of rain - the heaviest single-storm US total on record.
For Jamaica today, that slow crawl meets steep terrain. Moist air rises quickly over the island’s mountains, wringing out even more rain. Expect swollen rivers, fast-moving gullies and debris flows, especially where hillsides have been cleared. Forecasters have flagged widespread landslide risk alongside flash floods, so the safest choice is to stay higher and away from slopes or waterways.
Who gets hit hardest and why: around 70% of Jamaica’s people and over half of its economic assets sit in coastal areas, placing many homes, schools and clinics within reach of surge and river flooding. Lower-income families are more likely to live along riverbanks or on unstable slopes, and to lack affordable alternatives or secure land titles - making evacuation, recovery and insurance far tougher.
Wind versus water, and buildings: newer urban construction in Jamaica typically uses reinforced concrete and updated standards, which helps against wind. But wind resistance is only half the story; storm surge and floodwater can inundate ground floors and damage electrical systems. Jamaica’s Bureau of Standards has been revising codes and concrete standards to lift quality - useful progress, but not a shield against metres of water.
Critical services will strain. Both international airports - Norman Manley (Kingston) and Sangster (Montego Bay) - closed ahead of the worst weather, with airlines cancelling flights. Power cuts and mobile outages often cascade as trees and debris take down lines. Water and sewage systems can be overwhelmed by floodwater, so boil notices may follow.
Climate context you can teach with: a warmer world loads the dice. Warmer seas supply more latent heat to drive extreme winds; a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, increasing rainfall rates; and higher sea level lifts storm-surge baselines. NOAA’s research synthesis points to higher tropical-cyclone rainfall rates and a greater share of the most intense storms as the planet warms.
Media literacy tip: don’t fixate on category alone. A “Category 5” label reflects wind, but the largest share of casualties in recent hurricanes tends to come from freshwater flooding and surge. When you read an alert, scan for three things - expected rainfall totals, surge height above ground level, and the storm’s forward speed - to judge real risk.
For classrooms and curious readers: map Melissa’s path from a West African wave to Jamaica, then plot how sea-surface temperature anomalies and weak steering winds aligned this week. Ask why a slow track over warm water can drive both rapid intensification and extreme rainfall. This turns a news story into a live case study in physics, geography and civic decision-making.
What comes next: forecasts point to a track across southeastern Cuba and into the Bahamas through Wednesday, with hazards shifting but still serious. Keep checking official updates from the National Hurricane Center and local agencies; conditions change hour by hour during eyewall cycles and when storms interact with mountains.